...Says AfDB President’s data flawed, conclusion misleading

Presidential aide Bayo Onanuga has faulted recent remarks by the outgoing President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, who claimed Nigerians are worse off today than they were in 1960. In a sharply worded rebuttal issued on Sunday, May 4, Onanuga described Adesina’s assertion as misleading and based on incorrect economic data.

Adesina had reportedly cited Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 1960 as $1,847 compared to $824 today, concluding that the average Nigerian has become poorer over time. But Onanuga, Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Information and Strategy, dismissed the figures as inaccurate, pointing instead to historical records showing that Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 1960 was just $93.

“Our country’s GDP was $4.2 billion in 1960 for a population of 44.9 million. It did not rise remarkably until crude oil earnings expanded in the 1970s,” Onanuga stated, citing progressive economic growth through the decades that culminated in a GDP per capita of $3,200 in 2014 after rebasing.

But beyond the numbers, Onanuga argued that GDP per capita is a limited metric that fails to capture critical elements of living standards. “It neither discloses wealth distribution nor accounts for the informal economy, subsistence farming, or income transfers within families,” he said.

He noted that Dr. Adesina, a seasoned economist and former Nigerian minister, should have factored in improvements in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and technology access over the last six decades. “Nigerians today enjoy widespread access to mobile phones and digital services,” he pointed out, contrasting it with just 18,724 landlines in use at independence in 1960.

Highlighting the limitations of relying solely on GDP figures, Onanuga recalled how telecom giant Vodacom once passed on the Nigerian market due to misleading economic metrics. However, MTN and other operators who took the risk now boast millions of subscribers and multibillion-naira revenues.

“MTN’s first-quarter result this year declared over N1 trillion in revenue with over 84 million users. How does that align with Adesina’s claim that we’re worse off than in 1960?” Onanuga queried.

The presidential aide also pointed to expectations that the National Bureau of Statistics will soon rebase Nigeria’s GDP, which he believes will further confirm that the nation’s economy is vastly larger and more complex than at independence.

“Adesina spoke like a politician, in the mould of Peter Obi, and did not do due diligence before making his unverifiable statement,” Onanuga concluded.

The remarks add a sharp political tone to what began as a data-driven comment by the AfDB President, reflecting growing tensions over how best to evaluate Nigeria’s economic progress in the post-colonial era.